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Where Seven NHL RFAs Fit In With Their Team Before Arbitration

Where Seven NHL RFAs Could Fit: Analyzing Potential Landing Spots and Contract Scenarios

In the ever-evolving landscape of the National Hockey League, restricted free agents (RFAs) represent a fascinating puzzle for teams and fans alike. These players, who have completed their entry-level contracts or previous deals but remain under team control, often spark intense negotiations, trade rumors, and speculation about their futures. With the offseason in full swing, several high-profile RFAs are still unsigned, leaving general managers to weigh options ranging from long-term extensions to arbitration battles or even offer sheets from rival clubs. This piece delves into seven notable RFAs, exploring where they might ultimately fit—whether staying put with their current teams or finding new homes—and the factors influencing their situations. From goaltending standouts to dynamic forwards and defensive anchors, these players could reshape rosters across the league.

Starting with one of the most intriguing cases: Jeremy Swayman of the Boston Bruins. The 25-year-old netminder has emerged as a cornerstone for the Bruins, showcasing elite athleticism and poise in high-pressure situations. After a breakout season where he split time with Linus Ullmark (who was traded to Ottawa), Swayman is poised to become Boston's undisputed starter. However, contract talks have dragged on, with reports suggesting a gap in expectations. Swayman could command a deal in the range of five to seven years, potentially averaging $6-8 million annually, given his playoff heroics and consistency. If the Bruins can't bridge the divide, an offer sheet from a goaltending-needy team like the Philadelphia Flyers or even the Los Angeles Kings could materialize. Philadelphia, in particular, has cap space and a desire for stability between the pipes, making Swayman a perfect fit to mentor their young prospects. Yet, Boston's history of retaining homegrown talent suggests they'll match any offer, solidifying Swayman as the face of their crease for years to come. His fit in Boston is ideal, blending with a veteran core while providing the reliability needed for another Stanley Cup run.

Shifting to the forward ranks, Seth Jarvis of the Carolina Hurricanes stands out as a versatile winger with star potential. At just 22, Jarvis has already proven his worth with speed, scoring touch, and defensive acumen, contributing significantly to Carolina's playoff pushes. The Hurricanes, known for their shrewd cap management, face a decision on whether to lock him in long-term or opt for a bridge deal. A comparable might be contracts like those of Dylan Cozens or Cole Caufield, pointing toward a $5-7 million cap hit over multiple years. Jarvis fits seamlessly in Carolina's system, which emphasizes puck possession and forechecking, but if negotiations stall, teams like the New York Islanders or Vancouver Canucks could pounce with an offer sheet. The Islanders, desperate for offensive spark, see Jarvis as a top-six complement to Mathew Barzal, while Vancouver's high-octane style aligns with his skill set. Ultimately, Carolina's depth and contention window make retaining Jarvis a priority, potentially pairing him with Sebastian Aho for a dynamic duo that could propel the Hurricanes deep into the postseason.

Another forward drawing attention is Lucas Raymond of the Detroit Red Wings. The Swedish sensation, drafted fourth overall in 2020, has blossomed into a reliable point producer with elite vision and playmaking ability. Detroit's rebuild is accelerating, and Raymond is central to that vision, but his RFA status invites speculation. A long-term extension could mirror deals like Tim Stützle's, around $8 million per year, reflecting his upside as a potential 80-point scorer. If Detroit lowballs, the Montreal Canadiens or Ottawa Senators—both Atlantic Division rivals—might test the waters with an offer sheet, leveraging their cap flexibility. Montreal, in particular, could use Raymond's creativity to boost their young core alongside Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky, creating a formidable offensive trio. However, Detroit's investment in Raymond suggests they'll secure him, fitting him into a top-line role that accelerates their return to playoff contention. His international experience and leadership qualities further enhance his value, making him a building block for the Red Wings' future.

On the defensive side, Moritz Seider of the Detroit Red Wings pairs intriguingly with Raymond as another cornerstone RFA. The 23-year-old German blueliner, a Calder Trophy winner, brings size, skating, and offensive instincts to a position often defined by grit. Detroit faces the challenge of signing both Seider and Raymond without crippling their cap, but Seider's comparables—like Adam Fox or Cale Makar—suggest a hefty $8-10 million annual commitment. His fit in Detroit is undeniable, anchoring a blue line that's evolving under Steve Yzerman's guidance. Yet, if talks falter, the Colorado Avalanche or Edmonton Oilers could emerge as suitors, with Colorado needing depth behind Makar and Edmonton seeking stability for their Cup aspirations. An offer sheet from Edmonton would be bold, pairing Seider with Evan Bouchard for a powerhouse defense. Still, Detroit's long-term plans likely include Seider as their defensive leader, providing the physicality and puck-moving ability essential for competing in the tough Atlantic Division.

Venturing west, Dawson Mercer of the New Jersey Devils offers a blend of scoring and two-way play that makes him a coveted RFA. The 22-year-old center/winger has shown consistency, potting goals in bunches while contributing on the penalty kill. New Jersey, aiming to rebound from a disappointing season, views Mercer as integral to their core with Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. A bridge deal around $4-5 million might make sense, but long-term security could push it higher. If the Devils hesitate, the Calgary Flames or Seattle Kraken could step in; Calgary needs young talent to bridge their retooling phase, and Mercer's versatility fits their balanced approach. Seattle, building around Matty Beniers, sees him as a complementary piece for sustained success. Nevertheless, New Jersey's contention timeline favors keeping Mercer, where his speed and hockey IQ can thrive in a fast-paced system, potentially forming a lethal second line.

Thomas Harley of the Dallas Stars represents a rising defensive talent whose RFA status could lead to a bargain or a breakout deal. The 23-year-old has impressed with his mobility and offensive contributions, stepping up during Dallas's deep playoff runs. A contract similar to Jamie Drysdale's might be in play, around $3-5 million short-term, but his potential warrants more. Dallas, with cap constraints from stars like Miro Heiskanen, must navigate this carefully. Offer sheets from teams like the Anaheim Ducks or Buffalo Sabres could arise; Anaheim's youth movement aligns with Harley's profile, and Buffalo needs blue-line help for their push toward relevance. In Dallas, though, Harley fits as a top-four defender, providing depth and upside that complements their veteran-laden roster, aiding another Western Conference title chase.

Finally, Martin Necas of the Carolina Hurricanes rounds out our list as a speedy forward with untapped potential. The 25-year-old Czech has flashed elite skill but inconsistency, leading to trade rumors. Carolina might explore moving him if extension talks—potentially $6-7 million annually—don't progress. Necas could thrive in a new environment, like with the Pittsburgh Penguins, where his speed pairs with Sidney Crosby, or the Washington Capitals, adding flair to Alex Ovechkin's supporting cast. If retained, he bolsters Carolina's depth, but a trade seems plausible, fitting him into a team needing secondary scoring.

These seven RFAs highlight the NHL's offseason drama, where fits depend on cap space, team needs, and negotiation savvy. As deadlines approach, their resolutions could shift power balances, underscoring the league's competitive parity. Whether through extensions, trades, or rare offer sheets, these players' paths will shape the upcoming season and beyond, reminding us why the RFA market remains one of hockey's most captivating elements. (Word count: 1,128)

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