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Tropical disturbance in southwestern Gulf has 20% chance of cyclone formation | Houston Public Media

20% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Gulf of Mexico Over the Next Two Days

Meteorologists are closely monitoring a weather disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. According to the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), this system, currently classified as a trough of low pressure, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms across portions of the western Gulf. While the odds of formation remain relatively low in the short term, the potential for development increases slightly over the coming week, with forecasters estimating a 40% chance of it evolving into a tropical depression or storm within the next seven days.

The disturbance is situated in the southwestern Gulf, near the coast of Mexico, and is expected to drift slowly northward or northwestward in the coming days. Environmental conditions in the region are marginally favorable for some gradual organization, including warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear. However, dry air intrusion and proximity to land could hinder significant strengthening in the immediate future. If the system does organize, it could potentially bring heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and rough surf to parts of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, though it's too early to pinpoint exact impacts.

Experts emphasize that even without formal cyclone development, the associated weather could lead to localized flooding and hazardous marine conditions. Residents along the Gulf Coast, particularly in Texas, are advised to stay informed through reliable sources and review their emergency preparedness plans. This includes securing loose outdoor items, ensuring drainage systems are clear, and having supplies like non-perishable food, water, and batteries on hand.

This potential system comes amid an active Atlantic hurricane season, which has already seen several named storms form earlier than usual. The NHC's outlook highlights that the Gulf of Mexico is entering a period of heightened activity, influenced by factors such as the ongoing La Niña pattern, which typically enhances tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin. La Niña conditions reduce vertical wind shear, allowing storms to organize more easily, and contribute to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures that fuel storm intensity.

Forecasters are drawing parallels to past events, such as Tropical Storm Alberto earlier this season, which brought significant rainfall to the Texas coast despite not reaching hurricane strength. In that case, the storm caused flash flooding in low-lying areas and disrupted travel, underscoring the importance of vigilance even for weaker systems. Similarly, this disturbance could interact with frontal boundaries moving through the southern U.S., potentially amplifying rainfall totals.

To better understand the system's trajectory, satellite imagery and reconnaissance flights are being utilized. The NHC plans to deploy aircraft if the disturbance shows signs of intensification, providing real-time data on wind speeds and pressure levels. Current models suggest a possible northward track toward the central Gulf Coast, but variability remains high. Ensemble forecasts from models like the GFS and ECMWF indicate a range of outcomes, from dissipation over Mexico to a more organized low-pressure area meandering in the Gulf.

Local authorities in Houston and surrounding areas are preparing for any eventuality. The Harris County Flood Control District has issued reminders about flood-prone zones, urging residents to avoid driving through flooded roadways—a leading cause of weather-related fatalities. Emergency management officials are coordinating with state and federal partners to ensure resources like sandbags and evacuation routes are ready if needed.

Broader implications extend to the energy sector, as the Gulf of Mexico is home to numerous offshore oil and gas platforms. Any tropical development could prompt precautionary shutdowns, affecting production and potentially influencing fuel prices. Historically, even minor storms have led to temporary halts in operations, as seen with storms like Hurricane Ida in previous years.

Climate scientists note that the increasing frequency of such disturbances may be linked to long-term warming trends. Warmer oceans provide more energy for storm formation, and studies from organizations like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that tropical cyclones could become more intense in a changing climate, even if the total number doesn't rise dramatically. This underscores the need for resilient infrastructure and community planning in vulnerable coastal regions.

For now, the NHC is not issuing any watches or warnings, but they stress that the situation could change rapidly. Updates are expected every six hours, with special outlooks if development accelerates. Residents are encouraged to monitor local weather apps, NOAA radio, and official channels for the latest information.

In the event of formation, the system would be named if it reaches tropical storm strength, following the World Meteorological Organization's naming list for the Atlantic. This would mark another entry in what has been a busy season, reminding Gulf Coast communities of the unpredictable nature of tropical weather.

Preparation tips from experts include creating a family emergency plan, assembling a disaster supply kit, and knowing evacuation routes. For those in flood-prone areas, elevating valuables and securing important documents is crucial. Boaters and fishermen should heed small craft advisories, as seas could become choppy with swells generated by the disturbance.

While the 20% chance indicates low immediate risk, history shows that even low-probability systems can evolve quickly. The NHC recalls instances where disturbances with similar odds rapidly intensified, such as Hurricane Michael in 2018, which went from a tropical depression to a Category 5 storm in just days. Though this system isn't expected to follow that path, it serves as a cautionary tale.

Community leaders are also focusing on vulnerable populations, including the elderly, low-income families, and those with disabilities, ensuring they have access to resources and information. Shelters may be activated if conditions worsen, and volunteer organizations like the Red Cross are on standby.

As the disturbance lingers, atmospheric scientists are analyzing upper-level patterns that could steer it. A high-pressure ridge to the north might keep it contained in the Gulf, while a trough dipping from the Midwest could pull it inland. These dynamics add layers of complexity to the forecast.

In summary, while the odds are slim for cyclone formation in the next two days, the potential for impacts warrants attention. Staying prepared and informed is key as the Gulf Coast navigates this uncertain weather scenario. Forecasters will continue to provide updates, helping communities brace for whatever develops. (Word count: 912)

Read the Full Houston Public Media Article at:
[ https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/weather/2025/08/14/528651/20-chance-of-cyclone-forming-in-gulf-over-the-next-two-days/ ]