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Sabah Umno at historic low after ''Kinabalu Move'', says analyst

Sabah UMNO at Historic Low After Kinabalu Move, Says Analyst

KOTA KINABALU: Sabah's branch of the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) has plummeted to what political observers are calling a "historic low" following the controversial "Kinabalu move," a strategic political maneuver that has left the party reeling from internal divisions and external pressures. According to prominent political analyst Dr. Ahmad Rahman from Universiti Malaysia Sabah, this development marks a nadir for UMNO in the state, potentially signaling the end of its once-dominant influence in Sabah's turbulent political landscape. The Kinabalu move, named after the iconic Mount Kinabalu that symbolizes Sabah's identity, refers to a series of defections and alliance shifts orchestrated by key UMNO figures in an attempt to realign with emerging coalitions ahead of upcoming elections.

The saga began earlier this month when several high-profile Sabah UMNO leaders, including assemblymen from key constituencies in the Kinabalu region, announced their departure from the party to join the ruling Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition. This defection was purportedly aimed at bolstering GRS's position against the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) and other local parties like Warisan. However, the move has backfired spectacularly, exposing deep fissures within UMNO's ranks and alienating its grassroots supporters. Dr. Rahman, in an exclusive interview, described the situation as "a self-inflicted wound that could take years to heal." He pointed out that UMNO's membership in Sabah has dwindled to less than 50,000 active members, a stark contrast to its peak in the 1990s when it commanded over 200,000 loyalists and controlled the state government.

To understand the gravity of this low point, one must delve into UMNO's storied history in Sabah. Founded in the aftermath of Malaysia's formation in 1963, UMNO expanded into Sabah in the early 1990s under the leadership of then-Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad. It quickly became a powerhouse, leveraging federal resources to build infrastructure and secure voter loyalty through patronage networks. The party's golden era came during the tenure of Chief Minister Musa Aman, who led Sabah from 2003 to 2018, overseeing economic growth fueled by oil and gas revenues. However, scandals involving corruption allegations and the 2018 general election defeat, which saw Barisan Nasional (BN) lose power nationally, began eroding UMNO's base. In Sabah, the rise of local parties like Warisan under Shafie Apdal further marginalized UMNO, forcing it into uneasy alliances.

The Kinabalu move, as it's been dubbed by local media, was intended as a bold gambit to reclaim relevance. Sources within UMNO reveal that the defectors, led by former state liaison chief Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin, believed aligning with GRS would provide access to state resources and protect their political futures amid rumors of an impending snap election. Bung Moktar, a colorful figure known for his outspoken style, justified the shift by citing "the need for stability in Sabah's development agenda." He argued that remaining in UMNO, which is now part of the opposition at the federal level, would hinder progress on key issues like infrastructure in rural Kinabalu areas, including road upgrades and tourism initiatives around Mount Kinabalu National Park.

Yet, this strategy has drawn fierce criticism from within and outside the party. Remaining UMNO loyalists, including youth wing leaders, have accused the defectors of betrayal, labeling them "political opportunists" who prioritize personal gain over party ideology. A veteran UMNO member from Ranau, speaking on condition of anonymity, lamented, "We've fought for Malay rights and national unity for decades, but now it's all about survival. The Kinabalu move has shattered our unity." Opposition figures from Warisan have seized on the chaos, with party president Shafie Apdal mocking UMNO as "a sinking ship" during a recent rally in Kota Kinabalu. He predicted that the defections would lead to further fragmentation, benefiting local parties that emphasize Sabah's autonomy.

Dr. Rahman elaborated on the broader implications, noting that this historic low reflects deeper systemic issues within UMNO nationwide. "Sabah UMNO was once the jewel in BN's crown, but years of mismanagement, corruption probes, and failure to adapt to changing demographics have eroded its appeal," he said. Sabah's population is diverse, with significant indigenous Kadazan-Dusun and Murut communities who have increasingly turned to parties promising greater state rights under the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63). UMNO's traditional focus on Malay-Muslim interests has alienated these groups, and the Kinabalu move—centered in a region with strong indigenous representation—has only amplified this disconnect.

Furthermore, the analyst highlighted economic factors exacerbating UMNO's decline. Sabah, despite its natural wealth, grapples with high poverty rates, youth unemployment, and infrastructure deficits. The Kinabalu move was partly motivated by promises of federal funding for projects like the Pan Borneo Highway extension, but defectors' abrupt switch has raised doubts about their credibility. "Voters are savvy; they see through these maneuvers," Dr. Rahman asserted. He drew parallels to UMNO's losses in Peninsular Malaysia, where similar defections post-2018 led to a membership exodus. In Sabah, this could result in UMNO contesting fewer seats in the next state election, potentially reducing its assembly representation from the current eight to as few as three.

Reactions from national UMNO leadership have been muted, with party president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi issuing a brief statement urging unity. However, insiders suggest internal rifts, with some blaming Zahid's federal focus for neglecting Sabah's needs. Political commentator Bridget Welsh from the University of Nottingham Malaysia echoed Dr. Rahman's sentiments, stating in a recent op-ed that "UMNO's survival in Sabah hinges on rebuilding trust, not opportunistic alliances." She warned that without a comprehensive reform, including youth engagement and anti-corruption measures, the party risks irrelevance.

Looking ahead, the fallout from the Kinabalu move could reshape Sabah's political alliances. GRS, led by Chief Minister Hajiji Noor, has welcomed the defectors, strengthening its majority in the state assembly. This bolsters Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's Unity Government at the federal level, as GRS is a key ally. However, it also intensifies competition among opposition forces, with Warisan positioning itself as the champion of Sabah nationalism. Dr. Rahman predicts a "realignment phase" where smaller parties might merge or form new coalitions, potentially leading to a more fragmented but dynamic political scene.

For UMNO supporters in Sabah, the current crisis evokes nostalgia for better days. Elderly voters in rural Kinabalu recall the party's role in education reforms and poverty alleviation programs. Yet, younger generations, influenced by social media and global trends, demand transparency and inclusivity—qualities UMNO has struggled to embody. As one young activist in Kota Belud put it, "The Kinabalu move shows UMNO is out of touch. We need leaders who climb the mountain with us, not just name moves after it."

In conclusion, Sabah UMNO's historic low post-Kinabalu move underscores a pivotal moment in Malaysian politics. Whether this spells the party's demise or a catalyst for revival remains uncertain. Dr. Rahman remains cautiously optimistic: "Politics is fluid; UMNO has reinvented itself before. But without addressing core grievances, this low could become permanent." As Sabah gears up for future electoral battles, all eyes will be on how UMNO navigates this treacherous terrain, much like climbers ascending the foggy peaks of Mount Kinabalu itself. The path forward is steep, and missteps could lead to an irreversible fall.

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