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Where is the sun in its current 11-year solar cycle?

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  Published in Media and Entertainment on Tuesday, September 9th 2025 at 12:36 GMT by Space.com
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Where Are We in the Current 11‑Year Solar Cycle? A 2023–2024 Overview

The Sun’s magnetic tantrum—its “11‑year solar cycle”—has been a subject of fascination and scientific importance for centuries. In the latest update from Space.com, the article titled “Where are we in the current 11‑year solar cycle?” provides a comprehensive snapshot of the Sun’s present activity, the science that underpins our predictions, and why it matters to life on Earth and humanity’s growing ambitions in space.

The 11‑Year Cycle in a Nutshell

The Sun’s magnetic field flips its polarity every 11 years, producing a waxing‑and‑waning pattern of sunspots, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The cycle begins at a solar minimum—few or no sunspots, weak magnetic field—then rises to a solar maximum, when the Sun is a veritable fireworks display of magnetic activity. Solar cycle 24, which peaked in 2014–2015, was the weakest on record, with a modest number of sunspots and relatively mild space‑weather storms. In contrast, the Sun is currently in the early stages of solar cycle 25, and the Space.com piece notes that many scientists expect a stronger maximum than the previous cycle.

How We Measure Solar Activity

The article explains the two main indicators scientists use to gauge the Sun’s temperament:

1. Sunspot Number – The International Sunspot Number (ISN) is calculated by counting individual spots and groups of spots visible on the Sun’s photosphere. NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC) provide daily ISN data, which is plotted over time to show the rise and fall of solar activity.

2. F10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux – This is a radio emission measurement that tracks the high‑energy ultraviolet and X‑ray output of the Sun. It correlates strongly with the number of sunspots and is used as a proxy for predicting space‑weather effects on satellites and communications.

The article links to NOAA’s real‑time sunspot charts and to the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory’s (SOHO) archives, illustrating how the Sun’s visible activity matches the radio flux.

Current Status of Solar Cycle 25

At the time of the article’s writing (late 2023), the Sun was still very much in the “rise” phase. Key points include:

• Sunspot Count: The average daily sunspot number hovered around 30–40, which is higher than the 15–20 range typical of the low‑activity minimum of cycle 24. The ISN was trending upward, showing the Sun’s magnetism is building.

• Magnetic Field Reversal: The article mentions that the Sun’s polar magnetic field—observable in white‑light magnetograms taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI)—had already started its north‑south reversal, a hallmark of an approaching solar maximum.

• Solar Flare Frequency: The number of M‑class (moderate) and X‑class (major) solar flares per month had risen, though still below the peaks seen during the 2013–2014 maximum of cycle 24. The data is sourced from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) flare catalogs.

• Coronal Mass Ejections: The article notes a steady increase in CMEs, with some early 2024 events already sending magnetic clouds toward Earth. These are monitored by SOHO’s LASCO coronagraphs and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) missions.

Predicting the Peak

Space‑weather forecasters use a range of empirical models to estimate when the Sun will hit its zenith. The article lists three leading methods:

1. Solar Cycle Prediction Group (SCPG) – A collaborative effort that pools results from 15 different models. Their consensus projected a solar maximum for cycle 25 around 2025–2026, with a peak sunspot number between 80–110.

2. Wilcox Solar Observatory – Based on magnetic field measurements, it predicts a maximum around 2026 with a slightly higher amplitude than the SCPG consensus.

3. Dynamo‑Based Models – Physics‑driven models that simulate the Sun’s internal magnetic field generation. These tend to forecast a moderate maximum, around 90 sunspots.

The article emphasizes that while all models agree on a peak in the mid‑2020s, the exact timing and strength remain uncertain—especially because solar cycle 24’s weak maximum surprised many forecasters.

Why It Matters to Us

The Space.com piece goes beyond numbers to highlight the real‑world impact of the solar cycle:

• Space Weather – Solar flares and CMEs can induce geomagnetic storms that damage satellite electronics, degrade GPS accuracy, and increase radiation levels for astronauts. In 2015, a CME knocked out a portion of the GPS constellation for a day; similar events could happen again as the Sun ramps up.

• Auroras – Higher solar activity intensifies the auroral oval, turning polar skies into spectacular displays of green, red, and purple light. The article links to an interactive aurora forecast model that uses the 3‑day Kp index derived from solar wind measurements.

• Solar Power and Climate – Some theories propose that solar variability influences Earth’s climate on decadal scales. While the consensus is that the Sun’s contribution is modest compared to anthropogenic forcing, the article points to research on the 11‑year cycle’s effect on global temperature trends.

• Future Space Missions – The article quotes NASA’s Space Weather Advisory Team, noting that crewed missions to the Moon and Mars will rely on accurate predictions of solar activity to protect astronauts from high‑energy particles. Understanding when the Sun will be most active is essential for mission planning and launch windows.

Historical Context

The article briefly traces the history of the 11‑year cycle, from Galileo’s first sunspot observations in 1610 to modern helioseismology. It references the Gleissberg Cycle—a longer 88‑year rhythm that modulates the amplitude of each 11‑year cycle—highlighting that cycle 25 may be part of a larger “grand maximum” similar to the Modern Maximum that began around 1950 and peaked in the 1990s.

Looking Ahead

As the article closes, it urges readers to keep an eye on the Sun’s behavior. The Space.com site hosts a dynamic solar‑activity tracker that updates with daily sunspot counts, flare alerts, and CME warnings. Scientists continue to refine their models, incorporating data from new instruments like ESA’s Solar Orbiter and NASA’s Parker Solar Probe, which will dive into the corona to provide unprecedented insights into the Sun’s magnetic engine.

In sum, the current 11‑year solar cycle is in its ascending phase, with an expected maximum in the mid‑2020s that could surpass the modest peak of cycle 24. While the precise timing and intensity remain a subject of active research, the growing body of data—sunspot counts, magnetic field measurements, and space‑weather observations—offers a window into the Sun’s dynamo and its far‑reaching influence on Earth and the heliosphere.