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Israel: Netanyahu considering early election but can he convince people he''s winning the war?

Israel: Netanyahu Considering Early Election, But Can He Convince People He's Winning the War?

Jerusalem, July 19, 2025 – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly mulling over the idea of calling for early elections, a move that could reshape the political landscape amid ongoing conflicts and domestic unrest. Sources close to the Prime Minister's office indicate that Netanyahu believes the timing might be right to capitalize on what he perceives as military gains in the protracted war against Hamas in Gaza. However, the burning question on everyone's mind is whether he can persuade a war-weary Israeli public that victory is not just imminent but already within grasp.

The speculation about early elections comes at a pivotal moment. Israel's current Knesset term is set to run until 2026, but Netanyahu, known for his political acumen and survival instincts, has a history of maneuvering electoral timelines to his advantage. Insiders suggest that discussions within his Likud party have intensified over the past weeks, with Netanyahu consulting key allies like Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. The rationale? A belief that recent military operations, including targeted strikes on Hamas leadership and the expansion of buffer zones in Gaza, have tilted the balance in Israel's favor.

Yet, the path to an early vote is fraught with challenges. Public opinion polls, such as those conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute, show a divided populace. While Netanyahu's core base remains loyal, broader segments of society are skeptical. The war, which erupted in October 2023 following Hamas's brutal attacks, has dragged on far longer than anticipated, claiming thousands of lives on both sides and displacing hundreds of thousands. Israelis have endured rocket barrages, economic strain from reservist call-ups, and international isolation, including criticism from allies like the United States over humanitarian concerns in Gaza.

Netanyahu's narrative of "winning the war" hinges on several key claims. He points to the elimination of high-profile Hamas figures, such as the recent drone strike that reportedly killed a senior commander in Khan Younis. Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) operations have also dismantled extensive tunnel networks used by militants for smuggling and ambushes. In public addresses, Netanyahu has repeatedly asserted that Hamas's military capabilities have been degraded by over 70%, citing intelligence reports that the group's rocket arsenal is depleted and its fighters are demoralized.

But convincing the people is another matter. Critics argue that these achievements come at a steep cost without a clear endgame. Hostage families, who have become a powerful voice in Israeli society, protest regularly outside the Knesset, demanding a deal to bring back the remaining captives held in Gaza. Over 100 hostages were taken during the initial attacks, and while some have been released through negotiations, many remain unaccounted for. Netanyahu's refusal to prioritize a ceasefire for hostage releases has alienated moderates and even some within his coalition.

Moreover, the economic toll is undeniable. Israel's GDP growth has slowed, inflation is ticking up, and tourism—a vital sector—has plummeted. Small businesses in border communities near Gaza and Lebanon are struggling, with many residents still evacuated from their homes due to threats from Hezbollah in the north. The northern front adds another layer of complexity; skirmishes with the Iran-backed group have escalated, raising fears of a two-front war that could overwhelm Israel's resources.

Politically, Netanyahu faces a fragmented opposition. Benny Gantz, who briefly joined a unity government before resigning in frustration over war strategy, is positioning himself as a centrist alternative. Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party continues to hammer Netanyahu on corruption charges—Netanyahu is still on trial for bribery and fraud, cases that have dogged him for years. Far-right elements within his own coalition, led by Ben-Gvir, push for even more aggressive policies, including settlement expansion in the West Bank, which could further inflame tensions.

If Netanyahu opts for early elections, he must navigate the legal and procedural hurdles. Under Israeli law, the Prime Minister can dissolve the Knesset with a simple majority vote, but coalition partners might demand concessions. Ben-Gvir, for instance, has hinted at withdrawing support unless security measures are ramped up. Netanyahu's strategy likely involves framing the election as a referendum on his leadership during crisis, portraying himself as the indispensable strongman who has steered Israel through existential threats.

Historical precedents offer mixed lessons. In 2019, Netanyahu called snap elections amid legal troubles, only to face inconclusive results leading to multiple votes. His 2022 comeback was fueled by a narrative of security expertise, but the current war has tested that image. Public fatigue is evident in declining approval ratings; a recent Channel 12 poll showed only 35% of Israelis believe the war is being won, with 45% feeling it's stalemated.

International dynamics play a crucial role too. The Biden administration in the US, now in its final months before the 2024 election handover to a new president, has urged restraint while providing military aid. European nations are increasingly vocal about alleged war crimes, and the International Court of Justice's rulings on Gaza have put Israel on the defensive. Netanyahu's planned address to the US Congress next month could be a platform to bolster his "winning" narrative, emphasizing alliances and shared threats from Iran.

Domestically, the ultra-Orthodox parties in his coalition are a wildcard. Exemptions from military service for Haredi men have become a flashpoint, especially as the war demands more manpower. A Supreme Court ruling mandating their conscription could fracture the government, prompting Netanyahu to seek elections to reset the board.

Supporters argue that Netanyahu's experience is unmatched. At 75, he is Israel's longest-serving prime minister, having navigated multiple conflicts, from Operation Protective Edge in 2014 to the current escalation. His advocates point to diplomatic triumphs like the Abraham Accords, which normalized ties with several Arab states, as evidence of his strategic vision. They believe that with Hamas weakened, now is the time to secure electoral gains before any potential setbacks.

Opponents, however, see hubris. "Netanyahu is gambling with the nation's future," said a senior Labor Party figure. "He's not winning the war; he's prolonging it for political survival." Protests, which peaked in 2023 over judicial reforms, have morphed into anti-war demonstrations, with tens of thousands taking to the streets weekly.

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza further complicates Netanyahu's pitch. Over 40,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to health authorities there, with vast swathes of the enclave in ruins. Aid convoys are hampered, and famine warnings persist. While Netanyahu blames Hamas for using civilians as shields, global opinion has shifted, isolating Israel and fueling boycotts.

Economists warn that prolonging the war without a clear victory could lead to long-term damage. Israel's tech-driven economy, a global powerhouse, is resilient but not immune. Venture capital inflows have dipped, and brain drain is a concern as young professionals emigrate amid uncertainty.

In the north, the Hezbollah threat looms large. Cross-border fire has displaced 80,000 Israelis, and a full-scale invasion could be catastrophic. Netanyahu has vowed to restore security, but without a diplomatic breakthrough—perhaps mediated by the US or France—escalation seems inevitable.

As Netanyahu weighs his options, the Israeli public grapples with profound questions: What constitutes victory? Is it the total dismantling of Hamas, the return of hostages, or a sustainable peace? Polls suggest a desire for normalcy, with many favoring negotiations over endless conflict.

If elections are called, the campaign will likely center on security versus accountability. Netanyahu's charisma and oratory skills could sway voters, but facts on the ground—ongoing sirens, empty schools in the south, and grieving families—might prove insurmountable.

In the end, Netanyahu's decision could define his legacy. A bold move to elections might reaffirm his dominance, but failure to convince the electorate that he's winning could spell the end of an era. As one analyst put it, "In Israeli politics, perception is reality, but reality has a way of biting back."

The coming weeks will be telling. With coalition meetings scheduled and public pressure mounting, Netanyahu stands at a crossroads. Will he roll the dice on early elections, betting that his version of victory resonates? Or will caution prevail, allowing the war's uncertainties to unfold? For now, Israel watches and waits, caught between hope for peace and the harsh grind of conflict.

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